Thursday, April 5, 2018

CRASH N BURN


50 year s ago MLK said “ A time comes when silence is betrayal…the promise of hope for the poor, both black and white has been broken and eviscerated”  And He went on to say “Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide  in the strife of Truth and Falsehood, for the good or evil side.” So I ask where do go from here. Hey people with your WILLFUL BLINDNESS,  we have ticking time bombs all over the place...volatility picking up steam, avalanches starting to roll, smoke screens all over the place, asset bubbles about to pop, infighting, bickering, finger pointing...It would be easy to assume that the Deep State, politicians and business leaders will suddenly wake up and do what’s right.  Unfortunately this will not happen.  We are headed for the big waterfall alias Crash n Burn and there is nothing that we can do about it.  The one certainty is that God is in control no matter what happens.  However knowing that God is in control does not remove us from our responsibility to do everything possible to change our circumstances and prepare ourselves for difficult times, because Faith without Works is dead. Remember I have seen the outcome.  The “WILLFULL BLINDNESS” arrogance, pride and lusts are going to drown most people as  wave after wave of events are going to happen, it will not be pretty, in the post called “The calm before the waves overtake us", written on 3/26/2018  tells the story for you naysayers and non Titanic believers.   
 Only 3 possible scenarios.  (1).  The Nation becomes great again and the good ole times of the nineties come back. (2.) Stagflation where our economy stays anemic while everything goes up around us (3). Complete bust.  Let’s take each point. Point by point.  I will not be using the new math of 1+1 = 3.  To make America great again requires recovery . not just here in the United States but in most industrial nations.  It requires real cash flows to service debts and expand, not fancy accounting tricks, not wars bringing on total destruction.  We’ve had low interest rates and abundant credit.  For the last 10 years interest rates have remained near Zero now they are reversing upwards, Credit is now starting to tighten up again, it requires real employment with people making real money, it’ requires the manufacturing base to come back to America, not farmed out to China the great imitators and other 3rd world countries.  In retrospect Trump got it a 3rd  right on tax cuts, it should have been expanded to give companies incentives to bring manufacturing back to the United States not this microwave mess where the numbers don’t add up plus no cuts in spending.  So since the “make America Great” scenario one is not going to happen then points 2 and 3 come into play “CRASH N BURN. 
See these things have happened before, take for example Germany after WW1, they printed money to pay war debts,  plundering the middle class and wiping out the value of savings and paving the way for Hitler. and WW2.  Another example were the money flows into the United States after WW1, like all the real estate cranes we see building new apartments, condos and commercial space.  Another example were the tariffs/trade wars before the Great Depression which we are doing again.   Another example is in California where  homes, building, bridges are built to withstand an earthquake up to a 8 magnitude earthquake. Remember the big earthquake that rocked the Bay area , homes, buildings and bridges collapsed.  The government and experts said it couldn't happened or what about the Titanic it sunk it was touted to be indestructible...NOT...The crowd is always a day late and a dollar short, the crowd is too puffed up in their own life and can’t see thru the forest for the trees, the crowd is complacent, the crowd doesn’t give a rats tail until it comes up and bites them in the ass.

Here's the facts:  Auto Sales 1st. GM just announced that they will report auto sales quarterly instead of monthly in an apparent stalling smoke screen, so they stall showing declining sales over the last 3 years.  I said earlier that interest rates are rising, right now the average car  payment is $515 for 70 months on a depreciatable asset. the average new vehicle loan hit a record high $31,099; ii) the average loan for a used auto climbed to a record high $19,589 and avg payback time is 64 months and $515 monthly.  Now the aggressive auto lenders are starting to slash car origination loans.  Next we have lease returns hitting the market next.
2nd.  The Real Estate market…Bet you can’t guess what area leads the nation of home price surge since the last housing bubble in 2008 thru 2017…It s Dallas/ Ft Worth Metro Area up an astounding 183%. From 82,00 to 284,000.  Out of the 20 fastest growing appreciation cities, Austin-114%, Arlington, Plano 94%, FT Worth 93%, Houston, 87%, Katy 87%,  six other in Florida even my old home town Nashville TN  is up 77% since last housing bubble in 2008.  The average starter home in Dallas is now 185,000 with only 800 homes for sale under 150,000 listed on the MLS.  Also can you imagine trying to buy in Manhattan in NY at 1,445,000 or San Francisco at $1,265,000
3rd Rental Market…Imagine living in San Francisco ..1 bedroom is $ 3,670 or NY City …$3,370 or 2 bedroom in San Francisco is $5,000 or NY City $3,980…Other selected markets for 1 bedroom rents…Atlanta $1,430, Nashville- 1,310, Dallas- $1,300, Houston- $1,290, Plano $1,120 but only $770 in Arlington, TX.
4th Let’s look at money needed to buy a home in selected markets:  Assumptions home 246K with 10% down payment…that’s 24K down,,, income needed 63,000…which is $2,625 on 24 pay periods minus fed income tax and social security tax  of $735 minus health insurance $450 = $1,440 take home every 2 weeks. ..interest rate now up to 4.4% and rising,,, monthly payment $1,232 which does not include property taxes and insurance…property taxes  Dallas County 2.18% per 1k = $5,363 or $446 monthly, insurance $1,954 or $163 monthly bringing monthly payment to $1,841 monthly…bear in mind TX insurance rates went up on average 6% and property taxes in Dallas County went from 1.85 to 2.18% this year, and will continue to go up as governments hunt for cash because they are broke.  Let’s break numbers down further this does not include electricity, water/sanitation costs.  More in dept look add car payments, car insurance, educational loans, credit card payments, cable/Internet, cell phone, food is $146 to $289 per week, gas for your car, other misc expenses kids clothes and gimme expenses.  WILD CARDS..TRUMPS TARIFFS/TRADE WAR AND WAR/SOVEREIGN DEBT DEFAULT CONTAGION STARTING IN EUROPE. BANK DEFAULTS, STOCK MARKET CRASH WORLDWIDE, BOND MARKET IMPLOSION, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, DERIVATIVES IMPLOSION, CONSUMERS STOP SPENDING, INTEREST RATES RISE TO QUICKLY THEREBY CHOKING OFF BUSINESS AND MASS LAYOFFS ENSUE.
Just know everything is a cycle, then Newton’s 3 laws go into effect. As your Watchman is not for the feint of heart, the message unpopular mostly falling on deaf ears.  The simple job is I discern and report what I see and inform you the people whether it’s economic, political, social or religious and let you connect the dots.  Remember that things are interrelated and have happened before the playas change but the game remains the same.  Lastly We are now fast approaching the end game before the fall.  In 2nd Timothy 3 it states “that in the last days there will be very difficult times. 2For people will love only themselves and their money. They will be boastful and proud, scoffing at God, disobedient to their parents, and ungrateful. They will consider nothing sacred. 3They will be unloving and unforgiving; they will slander others and have no self-control; they will be cruel and have no interest in what is good. 4They will betray their friends, be reckless, be puffed up with pride, and love pleasure rather than God. 5They will act as if they are religious, but they will reject the power that could make them godly……in 2nd Timothy 4:5 it states 5But you should keep a clear mind in every situation.” So  don’t be  bamboozled, hoodwinked, manipulated or sheep being led to slaughter, the trumpets have sounded …Tick, tock, tick, tick, tick, tock.



No comments:

Post a Comment